US election: Trump vs Harris foreign policy and Pakistan future

WEB DESK: As the 2024 United States (US) presidential election nears, the foreign policy strategies of candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are set to significantly influence relations with Pakistan.

The US has in recent years greatly shifted its tilt towards India as the latter’s economy grows at an unprecedented rate, and most importantly, as a counter to China’s growing global influence.

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While US foreign policy largely remains similar despite the party in power, Donald Trump is an unpredictable hurricane capable of shocking his own advisers.

The election of either candidate into the Oval Office presents a contrasting relationship with inflation-weary Pakistan.

Donald Trump

During his tenure as the US president from 2017 to 2021, Trump adopted a critical and rather hostile approach towards Pakistan.

He cut off $1.3 billion in security assistance to the nuclear armed South Asian nation. He also accused Pakistan of harbouring militant groups, including the Taliban.

The mercurial reality media mogul’s presidency saw a strained bilateral relation and disrupted military cooperation.

The Trump administration also strengthened ties with India through the Quad alliance. India became the key partner in South Asia instead of Pakistan.

Trump’s reelection will not be so good for Pakistan, especially as the country struggles with a hard-hitting inflation.

While some point to his apparent good rapport with former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, the PTI founder is sitting in jail on multiple charges and ongoing lawsuits against him.

Trump’s unpredictable nature also makes it unlikely he can be remotely trusted to show a preferential treatment towards Pakistan.

With Trump’s administration’s impartiality for Israel, who enjoys strong ties with India and supports an extremely powerful lobby within the United States, it is more likely he, instead, will press down on Pakistan with regards to its close relationship with China.

And while Trump is allegedly partial towards Russia, he has a contentious relationship with China. The Asian giant’s growing economic influence in global south via its Belt and Road Imitative (BRI) has already put the US on edge.

Trump’s stance on China will put Pakistan in a difficult position, as the cash-strapped, politically weak nation is not in a position to stand up to the US, despite China’s $65 billion investment.

Pakistan still heavily relies on international loans and aid from several global financial institutes, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are heavily influenced by the US.

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris does offer a more stable and diplomatic approach in regards to dealing with Pakistan.

However, it is important to remember that under her vice presidency, Pakistani and Chinese companies were hit with several sanctions over aiding Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme.

Harris did support  Joe Biden administration’s decision to maintain US assistance to Pakistan, including a $101 million aid package.

Harris’ Indian heritage and strong connection to the Indian-American community will pose a strong challenge to Islamabad.

Not only are Indian-Americans the richest ethnicity within the United States, the hardliner, anti-Pakistan Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has also in recent years reached out to the overseas Indian diaspora, who responded enthusiastically.

There are 35 million overseas Indians, with 5.1 million in the United States alone. Many also occupy extremely powerful positions within the US government, including Vedant Patel currently serving as the Deputy Spokesperson for the US Department of State, Sabrina Singh as the Defence Department’s Deputy Spokesperson.

Republican party member Nikki Haley has part Indian-Punjabi ancestry, as well. While Vivek Ramaswamy is a prominent member of the Republican party.

More worryingly, influential positions within the Silicone Valley are dominated by Indians, including Sundar Pichai as the CEO of Google and Satya Nadella as Microsoft CEO.

India also boasts a thriving IT industry, sometimes even called the “Silicone Valley of the east”.

Pakistan has much to fear especially if US-Indian defense cooperation increases under Harris.

Pakistani-American community

Over 600,000 Pakistanis are settled within the United States. While they do hold significant influence voters wise in swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, the community itself is extremely divided.

Many experts already pointed out how Harris’ support for Israel cost her several crucial votes from pro-Palestinian crowd. This holds especially true for the Pakistani-American community who have grown extremely disillusioned with the Democratic party for its continued support for Israel despite ongoing massacre that has killed 43,000 people, including 15,000 children, since last October.

The Labour Party in the United Kingdom also lost significant amount of votes over discontented British Muslim community on the plight of Palestine. This will hold true in the US, as well.

Besides the Palestinian issue, the community is also divided about the candidates. While some are wary of Trump’s populism and hostile approach towards Muslims, many view his past connection with Imran Khan as reason to support him.

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Harris’ inclusivity campaign theme, however, will resonate strongly with Pakistani-Americans, especially as Muslims find themselves increasingly marginalised and even outright maligned in Western media, be it United States or Europe.